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The Virtual FormGuide - Base Ratings | |
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| Service Description |
| Base Ratings are a sophisticated blend of
form evaluation developed and refined over a number of years. Their origin dates back to
1970 and the concepts and analytical principles endorsed in those days still apply,
although their application is enhanced through modern technologies. Factors taken into account include times, weights, distance suitability, barriers, beaten and winning margins, the class of race and the overall field strength. The entire history of a horse's career is evaluated and an emphasis on recent form patterns, together with consistency and fitness levels provide the basis for the Base Rating. Base Ratings are an ideal starting point for those who do their own form or rely on comparisons from other services. Riders are not taken into account as they are rarely known so far in advance and in fact may change on raceday. With this knowledge you can apply your own adjustments for riders as you see fit. Base Ratings use formulas for dealing with beaten margins and distance changes which are not generally known. The so called accepted theory of 1.5k being equal to 1 length at all distances is just one factor that is rejected by the ratings. |
| How To Use This Service |
| Base Ratings provide a
theoretical finishing order with a numerical rating for each horse. The "gaps"
between each rated horse indicate how much difference there is between best and worst and
between each horse and those rated either side of it. From these "gaps" we
calculate a theoretical TAB dividend which represents the actual chance of each horse.
Note that our dividends are calculated to 100% whereas the TAB and bookmakers typically
operate to 115-120%. This means that our odds are more demanding ie we want a higher price
than the TAB or bookmaker would normally offer. The ratings are designed to be applied to any race in Australia. However some races such as Maidens, Class 1 races and 2yo events lack the necessary form exposure to be really reliable. Races that have unraced horses competing, continually prove to be unreliable. One reason for this, is that they are generally lower class races and the top rated horses still rate poorly. A good rule of thumb is to favour races where the top rated horses rate at 47kgs or above. Top chances that rate 50kgs or above and have a 3 kg. advantage on the field have a good winning record. The ratings are relative to the race itself. Therefore a horse that rates 50kgs in a Maiden is not to be considered as good as a horses that rates the same in a Welter. A rating of 50 in any race means the horse has the recent exposed form to win that race whilst a horse that rates say 40kgs. would need to improve 10kgs. theoretically to win the race in question. Horses as a rule will improve 3 to 5 kgs per run early in a preparation. Older horses take longer to reach peak form and fitness. Natural distance increases will suit some horses and their ratings will improve as distance increases. Normally a stayer will take 4 to 5 runs from a spell to reach peak fitness whilst a sprinter can hit peak form much earlier in a preparation. Betting strategies can vary according to individual preferences. Generally speaking horses rated longer than a $10.00 or 9/1 chance can be avoided. Horses rated up to 4/1 ($5.00) represent the best value, particularly when they are paying double figure odds. All horses that have raced receive a rating and regardless of the rated price, the ratings themselves give an order that can be used for Quinellas and Trifectas etc. There are a number of ways of using this information :-
Note that we cannot calculate a meaningful rating for an unraced horse, so these are unrated. Note also that lightly raced horses can improve rapidly with experience, so treat their ratings with caution. If you would like to review previous ratings to see how they can be used, you may access those from previous days for free via the normal TVF Data Access menu. For a more comprehensive database please go to our Ratings Archive. There is no charge. |
| Service Availability |
| Base Ratings are first made available at the
time final acceptances are processed for each meeting. This generally in the early
afternoon 2 days before each meeting. All races for Saturdays, Sundays and Mondays are
generally processed on Thursday. These early Base Ratings are produced in saddlecloth
number order with a rating for each horse. A new version of Base Ratings are produced on race mornings when scratchings are available. This version is produced in descending rating order with scratchings eliminated. |
| Service Pricing |
| On a Pay Per View basis, Base Ratings are priced at $0.40 per race or $3.00 per meeting. |
| TVF Services Which Include This Service |
| Base Ratings are available on a subscription basis as a component of these services :- |
| Demonstration Sample of This Service |
| TVF Members can see free Base Ratings from previous days in their normal data access menu. An archive of monthly Base Ratings in zip format is here. |